for everyone heading to eastern tibet / western sichuan soon the news is great – the end of the monsoon is happening as we speak, almost a full month earlier than last year. this is when the continental weather pattern starts to override the SE asian pattern and brings cold dry air which means a shift from rain to snow and the freeze level drops about 1000m almost overnight. this is the weather we are waiting for.
see the drop: this is the modeled forecast for Siguniangshan, which is the closest peak with a forecast to where we are headed. conditions do differ a bit as Siguniangshan sits closer to the Sichuan basin so is still more moisture affected than areas further north and west – but the shift in conditions is plain to see. this is actually a fairly normal version, with last year being unduly late.